We are very pleased to announce that the results of research conducted by Dr. Urata in collaboration with Dr. Eiji Hato of the University of Tokyo have been accepted for publication in Transportation Research Part C.
The paper’s detail:
Urata, J., Hato, E., Dynamic discrete choice model and its estimation algorithm with dynamic inconsistent expected utility in an uncertain situation, Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, Vol. 158, 104408, 2024. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X23003984
This study develops a model that introduces dynamic heterogeneity into the conventional dynamic discrete choice model and proposes a parameter estimation method for solving a nonlinear optimization problem with inequality constraints, which permits our model the flexibility to incorporate this heterogeneity. Our study makes a significant contribution to the literature because our model was better able to predict evacuation behaviors during the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami than conventional dynamic or static discrete choice models. Our proposed dynamic discrete choice model methodologically extends an applicability of time inconsistency of expected utility. Decision making in transportation field sometimes encounter the time inconsistency.